Liverpool face the Champions League brink
Liverpool may be the comeback kings in Europe but the odds are against them.
Even though Liverpool are experiencing a poor run of form, a number of Liverpool fans are still strongly behind boss Rafa Benitez. The reason for this is not due to a genuine belief he will improve things but more about a remembrance of what he has pulled off in the past.
They say it is better to be lucky than good and the Champions League final of 2005 saw Liverpool being one of the luckiest team ever. If they are to make it to the knock-out stages of this years competition, they will need another slice of luck and good fortune.
To understand why that is the case, the fixtures for Match day 5 may help:
Debrecen v Liverpool
Fiorentina v Lyon
Lyon have already qualified, which means it is between Liverpool and Fiorentina for the other qualification place. Liverpool are away in Hungary to face Debrecen but even a ten goal victory may not be enough!
If Fiorentina can defeat Lyon in Italy, they will have booked their place in the last 16 knock-out round. Anything other than a home win will keep the Reds dream alive, as long as they win in Hungary.
Liverpool have to win both of their games which will place them on 10 points. They need to grab ten points to be in with a chance of qualifying but even then that may not be enough.
Assuming Liverpool win in Hungary, the following scenarios would play out:
Fiorentina beat Lyon – Fiorentina go top and qualify for the last 16. Liverpool go to Europa League
Fiorentina draw – reach ten points, the maximum Liverpool can get. Liverpool would need to beat Fiorentina by at least two clear goals at Anfield on Match Day 6 but realistically by at least 3.
Fiorentina lose to Lyon – Fiorentina remain on 9 points and any Liverpool victory on Match Day 6 sees them pip the Italians for the final place.
That is the Mathematics of it all and as Little Boots will tell you;
“Mathematics is a difficult thing, I never understood the missing link.”
Little Boots is one thing but Liverpool fans will be praying that the magical boots of Fernando Torres will bring them back from the Champions League brink.
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